Bets with positive expected value identified by our statistical model
Our algorithm analyzes match probabilities and compares them to bookmaker odds. When our model detects a significant edge (EV ≥ +20%), the bet is flagged as a value bet.
| Match | League | Market | Pick | EV | Odds | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manchester United Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1X2 | Crystal Palace | +36% | 5.17 | |
Brighton Nottingham Forest | Premier League | O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | +24% | 2.00 |
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | EV | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Brighton Nottingham Forest | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.00 | +24% | Lost | 2 - 1 |
| Mar 1 | Manchester United Crystal Palace | 1X2 Away Win | 5.17 | +36% | Lost | 2 - 1 |
| Feb 27 | Burnley Brentford | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 1.99 | +23% | Lost | 3 - 4 |
| Feb 27 | Burnley Brentford | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 1.99 | +23% | Lost | 3 - 4 |
| Feb 27 | Bournemouth Sunderland | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 1.99 | +32% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| Feb 27 | Bournemouth Sunderland | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 1.99 | +32% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| Feb 27 | Liverpool West Ham | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.82 | +32% | Lost | 5 - 2 |
| Feb 27 | Liverpool West Ham | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.82 | +32% | Lost | 5 - 2 |
| Feb 27 | Newcastle United Everton | 1X2 Away Win | 4.44 | +34% | Won | 2 - 3 |
| Feb 27 | Newcastle United Everton | 1X2 Away Win | 4.44 | +34% | Won | 2 - 3 |
| Feb 26 | Wolverhampton Aston Villa | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.02 | +25% | Won | 2 - 0 |
| Feb 26 | Wolverhampton Aston Villa | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.02 | +25% | Won | 2 - 0 |
MetaPred uses a shrinkage model to estimate the true probability of outcomes. We blend our model probability (90%) with the market implied probability (10%) to get an adjusted estimate. When the expected value exceeds +20%, the bet is flagged. Our model has been validated on 895 matches with a +25.9% ROI on Premier League and Serie A.
A value bet occurs when the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker odds imply. For example, if a team has a 60% chance of winning but the odds suggest only 45%, there is positive expected value. Over time, consistently betting on positive EV selections leads to profit.
MetaPred uses a shrinkage model that blends our statistical model probability (90%) with the market implied probability (10%). The expected value is calculated as: EV = adjusted probability × odds - 1. Only bets with EV ≥ +20% are flagged.
Currently, value bets are available for the Premier League and Serie A. These leagues were selected based on our backtesting results showing the highest ROI. We may expand to other leagues as our model improves.
Our value bet model has achieved a +25.9% ROI over 102 bets across 4 months of production validation on Premier League and Serie A matches. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Value bets are designed for long-term profitability. Use flat stakes or Kelly criterion-based bankroll management. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. A single value bet may lose, but over a large sample, positive EV selections should generate profit.
