Bets with positive expected value identified by our statistical model
Our algorithm analyzes match probabilities and compares them to bookmaker odds. When our model detects a significant edge (EV ≥ +20%), the bet is flagged as a value bet.
There are currently no matches meeting the minimum +15% EV threshold. Check back later as new predictions are updated throughout the day.
| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | EV | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23 | Tottenham Everton | 1X2 Away Win | 4.02 | +34% | Lost | 1 - 0 |
| May 23 | West Ham Leeds United | 1X2 Away Win | 4.11 | +38% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| May 18 | Chelsea Tottenham | 1X2 Away Win | 3.51 | +31% | Lost | 2 - 1 |
| May 17 | Lille Auxerre | 1X2 Draw | 4.74 | +17% | Lost | 0 - 2 |
| May 17 | Nice Metz | 1X2 Away Win | 8.61 | +16% | Lost | 0 - 0 |
| May 17 | Arsenal Burnley | 1X2 Away Win | 28.29 | +52% | Lost | 1 - 0 |
| May 16 | Juventus Fiorentina | 1X2 Draw | 5.41 | +20% | Lost | 0 - 2 |
| May 16 | Como Parma | 1X2 Draw | 5.60 | +22% | Lost | 1 - 0 |
| May 16 | Inter Milan Hellas Verona | 1X2 Draw | 6.95 | +29% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| May 16 | Manchester United Nottingham Forest | 1X2 Away Win | 4.91 | +63% | Lost | 3 - 2 |
| May 15 | Bayer Leverkusen Hamburg | 1X2 Draw | 6.29 | +27% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| May 15 | Bayern Munich FC Koln | 1X2 Draw | 8.72 | +44% | Lost | 5 - 1 |
| May 14 | Real Madrid Real Oviedo | 1X2 Draw | 6.30 | +18% | Lost | 2 - 0 |
| May 12 | Manchester City Crystal Palace | 1X2 Draw | 7.29 | +33% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| May 10 | Tottenham Leeds United | 1X2 Away Win | 3.81 | +40% | Lost | 1 - 1 |
| May 8 | Manchester City Brentford | 1X2 Draw | 5.49 | +22% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| May 8 | RB Leipzig St Pauli | 1X2 Draw | 5.49 | +49% | Lost | 2 - 1 |
| May 7 | Lens Nantes | 1X2 Away Win | 7.38 | +19% | Lost | 1 - 0 |
| May 5 | Bayern Munich PSG | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 4.57 | +43% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| May 3 | Chelsea Nottingham Forest | 1X2 Away Win | 4.77 | +102% | Won | 1 - 3 |
| May 2 | Lille Le Havre | 1X2 Away Win | 8.01 | +19% | Lost | 1 - 1 |
| May 2 | Auxerre Angers | 1X2 Away Win | 5.43 | +23% | Lost | 3 - 1 |
| May 2 | Inter Milan Parma | 1X2 Draw | 6.46 | +29% | Lost | 2 - 0 |
| May 2 | Juventus Hellas Verona | 1X2 Draw | 6.59 | +31% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| May 2 | Bournemouth Crystal Palace | 1X2 Draw | 4.06 | +36% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| May 1 | Newcastle United Brighton | 1X2 Away Win | 2.65 | +18% | Lost | 3 - 1 |
| May 1 | Bayern Munich FC Heidenheim | 1X2 Draw | 6.70 | +20% | Won | 3 - 3 |
| May 1 | Arsenal Fulham | 1X2 Draw | 4.44 | +21% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| May 1 | Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart | 1X2 Draw | 4.01 | +30% | Won | 3 - 3 |
| Apr 27 | PSG Bayern Munich | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.95 | +26% | Lost | 5 - 4 |
| Apr 25 | VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen | 1X2 Draw | 4.34 | +16% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| Apr 25 | Borussia Dortmund Freiburg | 1X2 Draw | 5.22 | +32% | Lost | 4 - 0 |
| Apr 24 | Arsenal Newcastle United | 1X2 Draw | 4.63 | +18% | Lost | 1 - 0 |
| Apr 24 | Wolverhampton Tottenham | 1X2 Draw | 4.14 | +25% | Lost | 0 - 1 |
| Apr 24 | Liverpool Crystal Palace | 1X2 Draw | 4.78 | +27% | Lost | 3 - 1 |
| Apr 23 | Napoli Cremonese | 1X2 Draw | 4.91 | +20% | Lost | 4 - 0 |
| Apr 23 | RB Leipzig Union Berlin | 1X2 Draw | 5.20 | +40% | Lost | 3 - 1 |
| Apr 21 | Burnley Manchester City | 1X2 Draw | 8.68 | +19% | Lost | 0 - 1 |
| Apr 18 | Juventus Bologna | 1X2 Draw | 4.43 | +31% | Lost | 2 - 0 |
| Apr 17 | Napoli Lazio | 1X2 Draw | 3.97 | +16% | Lost | 0 - 2 |
| Apr 16 | Inter Milan Cagliari | 1X2 Draw | 6.65 | +19% | Lost | 3 - 0 |
| Apr 15 | Bayern Munich Real Madrid | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 3.81 | +21% | Lost | 4 - 3 |
| Apr 9 | Roma Pisa | O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 | 1.91 | +16% | Won | 3 - 0 |
| Apr 9 | West Ham Wolverhampton | 1X2 Away Win | 4.17 | +21% | Lost | 4 - 0 |
| Apr 9 | Real Madrid Girona | 1X2 Draw | 5.94 | +21% | Won | 1 - 1 |
| Apr 7 | PSG Liverpool | O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 | 2.58 | +15% | Won | 2 - 0 |
| Mar 21 | Tottenham Nottingham Forest | 1X2 Away Win | 3.15 | +32% | Won | 0 - 3 |
| Mar 19 | Bournemouth Manchester United | 1X2 Draw | 3.73 | +21% | Won | 2 - 2 |
| Mar 14 | Real Betis Celta Vigo | 1X2 Away Win | 3.40 | +17% | Lost | 1 - 1 |
| Mar 14 | Real Mallorca Espanyol | 1X2 Away Win | 3.27 | +24% | Lost | 2 - 1 |
MetaPred uses a shrinkage model to estimate the true probability of outcomes. We blend our model probability (90%) with the market implied probability (10%) to get an adjusted estimate. When the expected value exceeds +20%, the bet is flagged. Our model has been validated on 895 matches with a +25.9% ROI on Premier League and Serie A.
A value bet occurs when the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker odds imply. For example, if a team has a 60% chance of winning but the odds suggest only 45%, there is positive expected value. Over time, consistently betting on positive EV selections leads to profit.
MetaPred uses a shrinkage model that blends our statistical model probability (90%) with the market implied probability (10%). The expected value is calculated as: EV = adjusted probability × odds - 1. Only bets with EV ≥ +20% are flagged.
Currently, value bets are available for the Premier League and Serie A. These leagues were selected based on our backtesting results showing the highest ROI. We may expand to other leagues as our model improves.
Our value bet model has achieved a +25.9% ROI over 102 bets across 4 months of production validation on Premier League and Serie A matches. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Value bets are designed for long-term profitability. Use flat stakes or Kelly criterion-based bankroll management. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. A single value bet may lose, but over a large sample, positive EV selections should generate profit.
