Weekend Recap Feb 7-8: 37 Matches, 46.8% Accuracy, and 3 Five-Goal Thrashings
Full weekend recap of 37 matches across 5 leagues. MetaPred hit 46.8% overall accuracy. PSG, Bayern, and Inter all scored 5 goals.
The first full weekend of February delivered 37 completed matches across the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, and Ligue 1. Three teams hit five goals, Anfield saw a rare home defeat, and the prediction models had a tougher time than usual. Here is everything that happened and what the data tells us.
Key Results of the Weekend
Several matches stood out for their scorelines, upsets, or sheer entertainment value.
| Match | Score | League | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG vs Marseille | 5-0 | Ligue 1 | Le Classique domination |
| Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim | 5-1 | Bundesliga | Bayern in ruthless form |
| Sassuolo vs Inter Milan | 0-5 | Serie A | Inter cruise away from home |
| Newcastle vs Brentford | 2-3 | Premier League | Five-goal thriller at St James' |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Levante | 4-2 | La Liga | Six goals in San Mames |
| Liverpool vs Man City | 1-2 | Premier League | City win at Anfield |
| Nice vs Monaco | 0-0 | Ligue 1 | Cote d'Azur derby ends goalless |
| Atletico Madrid vs Betis | 0-1 | La Liga | Surprise defeat for Atletico |
| Arsenal vs Sunderland | 3-0 | Premier League | Comfortable Arsenal win |
| Barcelona vs Mallorca | 3-0 | La Liga | Barca cruise at home |
PSG's 5-0 demolition of Marseille was the headline act. Le Classique rarely produces such a one-sided affair, but PSG were clinical from start to finish. Bayern and Inter matched that five-goal output in their respective fixtures, making it a weekend dominated by attacking football at the top.
On the upset side, Liverpool losing 1-2 to Man City at Anfield was the result that raised the most eyebrows, while Atletico Madrid's home loss to Betis added another unexpected twist.
MetaPred Performance This Weekend
Let us break down how the MetaPred aggregation model performed across the 37 matches.
Saturday (20 matches)
| Bet Type | Accuracy |
|---|---|
| 1X2 | 55.0% |
| BTTS | 50.0% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 45.0% |
| Overall | 50.0% (30/60) |
Saturday was a decent day. The 1X2 predictions hit 55%, which is above our all-time average of 52.61%. BTTS was right on the coin-flip line at 50%, while Over/Under had a tougher day at 45%.
Sunday (17 matches)
| Bet Type | Accuracy |
|---|---|
| 1X2 | 41.2% |
| BTTS | 35.3% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Overall | 43.1% (22/51) |
Sunday was significantly harder to predict. The 1X2 accuracy dropped to 41.2%, and BTTS fell to 35.3%. Over/Under was the best performer at 52.9%, salvaging some value from an otherwise difficult day. Multiple upsets -- Liverpool at home, Atletico at home, Bologna losing to Parma -- made Sunday a tough round for every prediction model.
Full Weekend Totals
| Bet Type | Correct | Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 18 | 37 | 48.6% |
| BTTS | 16 | 37 | 43.2% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 18 | 37 | 48.6% |
| Combined | 52 | 111 | 46.8% |
The combined weekend accuracy of 46.8% sits below MetaPred's all-time rate of 52.61%. For context, here is where every provider stands in the all-time rankings:
| Provider | All-Time Accuracy |
|---|---|
| Statarea | 54.27% |
| MetaPred | 52.61% |
| RueDesJoueurs | 51.52% |
| FootballPredictions | 51.50% |
| Vitibet | 50.18% |
| OneMillionPredictions | 49.84% |
| Forebet | 49.43% |
| BettingClosed | 48.71% |
A below-average weekend does not change the long-term picture. Variance is part of football prediction, and weeks with multiple upsets will always pull short-term numbers down.
Trends Observed
BTTS Rates
The actual BTTS rate across the weekend was 48.6% (18 out of 37 matches saw both teams score). Saturday had a higher BTTS rate at 55%, while Sunday dropped to 41.2%. The weekend average aligns closely with the typical season-long BTTS rate for the top 5 European leagues, which tends to hover around 48-52%.
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 goals landed in 54.1% of matches across the weekend. Saturday and Sunday both recorded a 55% and 52.9% Over 2.5 rate respectively. The five-goal scorelines from PSG, Bayern, and Inter significantly contributed to this, as did the six-goal Bilbao-Levante thriller and the five-goal Newcastle-Brentford match.
Home vs Away
Home teams won in only 15 of 37 matches (40.5%), which is below the typical 44-46% home win rate for Europe's top leagues. Away teams had a strong weekend, with notable victories for Chelsea at Wolves, Dortmund at Wolfsburg, Brentford at Newcastle, Man City at Liverpool, Real Madrid at Valencia, and Inter at Sassuolo. This contributed to the lower 1X2 prediction accuracy, as models tend to give a slight edge to home teams.
Lessons Learned
1. High-scoring weekends do not guarantee Over/Under accuracy. Despite 54.1% of matches going Over 2.5, our Over/Under accuracy was only 48.6%. The model correctly identified some high-scoring games but also predicted goals in matches that stayed low, such as Nice 0-0 Monaco and Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
2. Sunday upsets can drag down an entire weekend. Saturday's 50% overall accuracy was respectable. Sunday's 43.1% brought the combined number down significantly. Matches like Liverpool losing at home and Atletico being beaten by Betis are the kind of results that no model can consistently predict. This is a reminder that weekend-level variance is normal.
3. BTTS remains the hardest bet type to predict consistently. At 43.2% for the weekend, BTTS was the weakest category. The challenge is that BTTS requires both teams to score, which depends on defensive errors and individual moments that are harder to model than overall match outcomes.
4. Away form is surging in early February. With home teams winning only 40.5% of matches, the data suggests that away teams are performing above their seasonal average. This could be a short-term blip or an early sign of a trend worth monitoring in the coming weeks.
This was a volatile weekend for predictions, but that is exactly what makes football unpredictable and what makes long-term accuracy tracking so important. One weekend does not define a model -- consistency over thousands of matches does.
Check today's predictions on MetaPred and see where the consensus points for the upcoming midweek fixtures. The data resets every day, but the methodology stays the same.
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