Calculate the expected value of your bets to find profitable opportunities
Our free Expected Value calculator helps you determine whether a bet is profitable in the long run. Enter your estimated probability, the odds offered and your stake to see the EV, edge and implied probability.
Expected Value
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EV (%)
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Edge
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Implied Probability
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Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over time. It is calculated using the formula: EV = (Probability × Net Profit) - ((1 - Probability) × Stake). A positive EV means the bet is profitable in the long run.
A positive EV (+EV) bet means that, on average, you will profit from this bet over many repetitions. For example, if you find a bet with +5% EV and stake €100, you can expect to earn €5 on average per bet. Professional bettors exclusively target +EV opportunities.
You can estimate true probability using multiple methods: analyzing historical statistics, considering team form and injuries, comparing predictions from multiple experts, using statistical models, or aggregating provider consensus. The more data sources you use, the more accurate your estimate will be.
The edge is the difference between your estimated true probability and the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds. A positive edge means you believe the outcome is more likely than the odds suggest. For example, if you estimate 60% probability but the odds imply 50%, your edge is 10%.
EV does not guarantee profit on any single bet — variance means you can still lose. However, consistently placing +EV bets will result in profit over a large number of bets, according to the law of large numbers. Proper bankroll management (like the Kelly Criterion) helps you survive variance while maximizing growth.
